Medicare Open Enrollment for 2027 coverage opened on October 15, 2026, and closes on December 7, 2026, the window the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced on September 28, 2026, alongside a projection that the weighted average Medicare Advantage premium will fall from $14.37 a month in 2026 to $12.00 in 2027. The premium is the small number; the large one is the plan's maximum out-of-pocket amount, or MOOP, and CMS has capped it for 2027 at $9,850 for in-network care and $14,800 for in-network and out-of-network care combined. A plan with drug coverage adds a separate Part D limit of $2,400, so the $9,850 figure now circulating as the 2027 Medicare Advantage limit is one of three ceilings, and for a PPO member who sees out-of-network doctors it is not the one that ends the year's spending. Both MOOP figures are maximums, not the amount on a given plan. Plans pick a number at or below them in one of three tiers, set by a CMS memo dated April 22, 2026, u...
A household with a card balance, a student loan, a car note and a few hundred dollars of monthly slack faces a ranking problem. The same dollar cannot both retire a balance and buy a share. The shorthand that circulates — clear anything above six or seven percent, invest below it — is a summary of an arithmetic result, not the arithmetic. It breaks where the tax code touches one side of the comparison and not the other, and in 2026 it touches two of the four debts most households carry.
One side is a rate. The other side is a distribution.
Paying a dollar against a revolving balance removes the interest that dollar would have accrued. If the balance would otherwise have sat untouched for twelve months at 22.15 percent, then $1,000 applied to it avoids $221.50 of interest. That is a 22.15 percent return, fixed in advance, with no spread around it, and no Form 1099 is issued for it because avoided interest is not income.
Buying an investment produces an expected return with a wide distribution around it, and any gain is taxed when realized. Setting one number beside the other compares a certainty to an average and a tax-free result to a taxable one. Two corrections make the sides comparable.
- State the investment return after tax. In a taxable brokerage account, a long-term gain is taxed at 0, 15 or 20 percent depending on taxable income. For 2026 the IRS set the top of the 0 percent band at $49,450 of taxable income for single filers and $98,900 for married couples filing jointly, and the top of the 15 percent band at $545,500 and $613,700 respectively. Inside a 401(k) or an IRA, the tax is deferred or, in a Roth, forgone, which is why the account type changes the answer even when the underlying holding does not.
- State the debt cost after tax. Interest that is deductible costs less than its stated rate. The general form is
after-tax cost = stated rate x (1 - marginal rate), applied only to the portion of interest the statute actually allows.
What each debt costs before any tax adjustment
The Federal Reserve publishes consumer borrowing rates quarterly in the G.19 release. In the release dated August 7, 2026, covering the second quarter, the rate on credit card plans at commercial banks was 20.94 percent across all accounts and 22.15 percent across accounts assessed interest. The 24-month personal loan rate was 11.86 percent and the new-car loan rate 7.14 percent.
Federal education debt is priced separately and by statute. The Department of Education, through Federal Student Aid, fixed the rate on Direct Subsidized and Direct Unsubsidized loans for undergraduates first disbursed between July 1, 2026 and June 30, 2027 at 6.52 percent. Direct Unsubsidized loans for graduate and professional students carry 8.07 percent, and Direct PLUS loans 9.07 percent. Those rates are set from the high yield of the 10-year Treasury note auctioned before June 1, plus a statutory add-on, and are fixed for the life of the loan.
For scale on the other side, the Federal Reserve H.15 release put the 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield at 4.69 percent and the 3-month bill at 3.71 percent as of August 20, 2026 — the return available with no equity risk at all.
| Debt | Stated rate | Source and period | Rate type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit card, accounts assessed interest | 22.15% | Federal Reserve G.19, Q2 2026 | Variable |
| Credit card, all accounts | 20.94% | Federal Reserve G.19, Q2 2026 | Variable |
| Personal loan, 24-month | 11.86% | Federal Reserve G.19, Q2 2026 | Typically fixed |
| Direct Unsubsidized, graduate | 8.07% | Federal Student Aid, 2026–27 | Fixed for life |
| New car loan, 60-month | 7.14% | Federal Reserve G.19, Q2 2026 | Typically fixed |
| Direct Subsidized/Unsubsidized, undergraduate | 6.52% | Federal Student Aid, 2026–27 | Fixed for life |
Card rates are not a constant either
A fixed 6.52 percent education loan stays 6.52 percent. A card rate does not. The G.19 annual averages show the all-accounts card rate moving from 14.60 percent in 2021 to 21.58 percent in 2024, a seven-point shift in three years.
Three places the tax code moves the line in 2026
Education loan interest, up to $2,500
Under Internal Revenue Code section 221, interest paid on a qualified education loan is deductible as an adjustment to income, so it is available without itemizing. The IRS caps it at the lesser of $2,500 or the interest actually paid. For 2026 the phase-out begins at $85,000 of modified adjusted gross income for single filers and heads of household and finishes at $100,000; for joint returns it begins at $175,000 and finishes at $205,000. A taxpayer filing married separately cannot claim it at all, and neither can someone who can be claimed as a dependent by another taxpayer.
Vehicle loan interest, up to $10,000
The IRS describes a deduction for interest on a personal vehicle loan, available for tax years 2025 through 2028, capped at $10,000 a year and available whether or not the filer itemizes. The conditions are narrow: the loan must have originated after December 31, 2024, must be secured by a lien on the vehicle, must have financed a vehicle the taxpayer is the original user of, and that vehicle must have undergone final assembly in the United States. The vehicle identification number goes on the return. The deduction phases out above $100,000 of modified adjusted gross income for single filers and $200,000 for joint filers.
Nothing at all for card and personal loan interest
Interest on revolving consumer credit and on unsecured personal loans is personal interest. It is not deductible, so the stated rate is the after-tax rate. That is why the top of the debt table stays at the top no matter what bracket the filer is in.
Three worked comparisons
A $6,000 card balance at 22.15 percent
Held flat for a year, that balance accrues roughly $1,329 in interest. None of it is deductible, so the after-tax cost of the debt is the full 22.15 percent. A dollar applied to it returns 22.15 percent, tax-free.
To match that inside a taxable brokerage account, a single filer whose 2026 taxable income falls between $49,450 and $545,500 pays 15 percent on a long-term gain, so the pre-tax return would have to reach 22.15 / (1 - 0.15) = 26.06 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.69 percent on August 20, 2026. The gap is not close, and it does not close under any plausible expected return.
An $18,000 undergraduate Direct Unsubsidized loan at 6.52 percent
Take a single filer with modified adjusted gross income of $70,000, below the $85,000 phase-out floor, so the section 221 deduction is available in full. After the 2026 standard deduction of $16,100 and the interest adjustment itself, taxable income lands near $52,700, inside the 22 percent bracket the IRS set above $50,400 for single filers in 2026.
- First-year interest, roughly
18,000 x 0.0652 = $1,174, is under the $2,500 cap, so all of it is deductible. - The deduction reduces tax by about
1,174 x 0.22 = $258. - Net cost is about $916, an effective rate of
6.52 x (1 - 0.22) = 5.09 percent.
Change one input. At $95,000 of modified adjusted gross income, the filer is two-thirds of the way through the $85,000-to-$100,000 phase-out, so only about a third of the interest survives as a deduction, roughly $391. The tax saved falls to about $86 and the effective rate rises to roughly 6.04 percent. A $25,000 difference in income moved the hurdle by nearly a full percentage point without the loan changing at all.
A $28,000 car loan at 7.14 percent
On a 60-month amortizing loan at 7.14 percent, the monthly payment is about $556 and first-year interest is roughly $1,842, well under the $10,000 cap. If the loan originated after December 31, 2024, is lien-secured, financed a vehicle assembled in the United States for personal use, and the filer's income is under the $100,000 single-filer phase-out, the interest qualifies. In the 22 percent bracket the deduction saves about $405 and the effective rate becomes 7.14 x 0.78 = 5.57 percent.
The date matters as much as the rate. The IRS states the provision applies to tax years 2025 through 2028. For tax year 2029, absent further legislation, the same loan reverts to its stated rate and the hurdle rises by roughly a point and a half.
Where the employer match sits
An employer match on elective deferrals is not a rate and does not belong on either axis. It is an addition to the contributed amount, set by the plan document rather than the market, and available only on dollars routed through the plan. The IRS set the 2026 elective deferral limit at $24,500, with a $8,000 catch-up at age 50 and a $11,250 catch-up for ages 60 through 63. Deferring reduces current taxable income, which is a second effect the debt side has no equivalent for.
Two other 2026 figures reshape the investing side at specific income levels. The Saver's Credit reaches single filers with adjusted gross income up to $40,250 and joint filers up to $80,500 — a credit, not a deduction. And a single filer with taxable income at or below $49,450 pays zero percent on long-term gains, so the pre-tax and after-tax returns are the same number.
What the rate comparison cannot price
- Liquidity runs one way. A dollar sent to a card is recoverable only if the issuer keeps the line open. A dollar inside a 401(k) is not ordinarily available before retirement age without tax consequences. Neither dollar is cash.
- Variable rates reprice; fixed rates do not. The G.19 all-accounts card rate rose from 14.60 percent in 2021 to 21.58 percent in 2024. A 6.52 percent Direct Loan stays 6.52 percent for its whole life.
- Certainty has value the arithmetic omits. A guaranteed 5.09 percent and an expected 5.09 percent are the same number and not the same thing.
- State income tax is not modeled here. States that do not conform to the federal treatment of these deductions produce a different after-tax cost of debt than the federal-only figures shown above.
Common misreadings of the comparison
- Treating a long-run average as the hurdle. A long-run equity average is the center of a distribution. Any debt rate is a point. Comparing them treats the two as the same kind of object.
- Reading 22.15 percent as what every cardholder pays. G.19 publishes two card series: 22.15 percent covers accounts assessed interest, 20.94 percent covers all accounts, including those carrying no balance.
- Assuming student loan interest is always deductible. The 2026 phase-out at $85,000 for single filers and $175,000 on joint returns, the exclusion of married-filing-separately, and the $2,500 cap each remove part or all of it.
- Assuming any car loan qualifies. U.S. final assembly, origination after December 31, 2024, a lien on the vehicle, personal use and the VIN on the return are conditions, not defaults.
- Forgetting the sunset. The vehicle interest deduction is described by the IRS as applying to tax years 2025 through 2028. A calculation that assumes it persists past 2028 is assuming legislation that does not currently exist.
Numbers to Re-check
| Figure | As used here | Where to verify | When it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit card rate, all accounts / assessed interest | 20.94% / 22.15%, Q2 2026 | Federal Reserve G.19, Terms of Credit | Quarterly |
| Direct Subsidized/Unsubsidized rate, undergraduate | 6.52%, 2026–27 | Federal Student Aid announcements | Each July 1 |
| Student loan interest deduction cap and phase-out | $2,500; $85,000–$100,000 single, $175,000–$205,000 joint | IRS Topic 456 and the annual revenue procedure | Annually |
| Vehicle loan interest deduction | $10,000 cap; tax years 2025–2028 | IRS guidance on the provision | By statute; sunsets after 2028 |
| Standard deduction | $16,100 single, $32,200 joint, $24,150 head of household | IRS annual inflation adjustments | Annually |
| 22% bracket floor | $50,400 single, $100,800 joint | IRS annual inflation adjustments | Annually |
| Capital gains 0% ceiling | $49,450 single, $98,900 joint | IRS annual revenue procedure | Annually |
| Elective deferral limit | $24,500; $8,000 catch-up at 50 | IRS cost-of-living adjustment notice | Annually, each autumn |
Where This Doesn't Apply
- Married filing separately. The student loan interest deduction is unavailable for that filing status, so a 6.52 percent loan costs 6.52 percent regardless of bracket, and the ordering changes accordingly.
- Modified adjusted gross income above the phase-out ceilings. Above $100,000 single or $205,000 joint for education interest, and above $100,000 single or $200,000 joint for vehicle interest, the deductions are gone and the stated rate is the after-tax rate.
- Promotional zero-percent balances. A balance at a 0 percent introductory rate has no interest to avoid until the promotional period ends, at which point the rate reverts to whatever the agreement specifies. The comparison has to be run against the reverted rate and the date it applies.
- Federal loans on income-driven repayment with a forgiveness endpoint. Where a remaining balance is scheduled to be discharged, extra principal paid reduces the amount eventually forgiven rather than reducing total cost, and the interest-rate comparison does not describe what is happening.
- Vehicles not assembled in the United States, or loans originated on or before December 31, 2024. The interest is not deductible and the 7.14 percent stays 7.14 percent.
- Households without cash reserves. Where an unexpected bill would go straight back onto the card, the dollar is not choosing between two long-term uses, and the ranking question is not yet the operative one.
- Anyone facing a specific tax position. Alternative minimum tax exposure, self-employment, multi-state residency and dependents all change the marginal rate that drives the arithmetic.
The inputs the ordering actually turns on
- The stated rate on each debt, listed separately. A 22.15 percent card and a 6.52 percent Direct Loan do not average into a meaningful number.
- Whether each debt's interest is deductible, and how much of it. Education interest is capped at $2,500; vehicle interest at $10,000 through tax year 2028; card and personal loan interest at zero.
- The marginal rate, computed from taxable income after the standard deduction. For 2026 that means $16,100 for a single filer, with the 22 percent bracket starting above $50,400.
- Where modified adjusted gross income sits relative to each phase-out range. The $85,000-to-$100,000 band for education interest converts a full deduction into a partial one, which moves the after-tax cost by roughly a percentage point at the income used above.
- The account the investment would go into. A taxable account at 15 percent, a taxable account at 0 percent, a traditional deferral, and a Roth contribution produce four different after-tax returns from the same holding.
- Whether the rate is fixed, and whether the deduction relied on expires. A variable rate makes the result a snapshot; a comparison that clears the hurdle only on a provision lapsing after 2028 stops clearing it in 2029.
This article explains how the rules are written. It is not tax, legal, or insurance advice, and it does not account for any individual situation. Amounts and thresholds change; verify the current figures at the source listed above before acting.
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