Social Security Increase 2027: How Much Survives the Medicare Part B Premium

On October 14, 2026, the Social Security Administration announced a 3.6 percent benefit increase for 2027, worth $75 a month for the average retired worker, with the first higher Social Security payment arriving in January 2027. For a beneficiary whose Medicare Part B premium is deducted from that payment, the January deposit moves by the increase minus any rise in the premium, and the 2027 premium has not been published yet: SSA says enrollees will see it starting in late November. A hold-harmless rule in the Social Security Act stops a premium increase from shrinking the deposit, but it compares dollars rather than percentages, reaches only a narrow set of checks, and even then can let the premium take the whole raise.

The loose reading is that a Part B increase cannot cut into anyone's COLA. The statute is narrower: it applies only to people who meet three conditions, compares one month's deposit with the month before, and caps the premium only when its dollar increase exceeds the benefit's dollar increase. If the 2027 premium rises by the same $17.90 as the 2026 premium did, someone paying the full $202.90 needs a benefit below about $497 a month before the cap matters.

What SSA Announced and What Is Still Missing

The SSA press release of October 14, 2026 puts the start in January: “Nearly 72 million Social Security beneficiaries will see a 3.6 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) beginning in January 2027.” The SSA 2027 Cost-of-Living Adjustment Fact Sheet prints estimated average benefits in columns headed “Before 3.6% COLA” and “After 3.6% COLA.” Three rows are used below:

• All Retired Workers: $2,095 before, $2,170 after, a $75 increase.
• Aged Widow(er) Alone: $1,936 before, $2,005 after, a $69 increase.
• All Disabled Workers: $1,642 before, $1,701 after, a $59 increase.

Those are gross amounts. The release leaves Medicare for later: “For Medicare enrollees, the 2027 premium amount will be available via my Social Security Message Center starting in late November.” People not receiving online messages get the COLA notice by mail in December.

The latest published premium is therefore the 2026 one. The CMS fact sheet on 2026 Medicare Parts A and B premiums and deductibles, dated November 14, 2025, reads: “The standard monthly premium for Medicare Part B enrollees will be $202.90 for 2026, an increase of $17.90 from $185.00 in 2025.” The $283 annual deductible is not the premium that comes off the benefit, so it stays out of the arithmetic.

On timing, the regulation's month and the published dates differ. eCFR 42 CFR 408.20, paragraph (a)(2), reads: “The law was amended in 1983 to require that the Secretary promulgate the standard monthly premium in September of that year, and each year thereafter, to be effective for the 12 months beginning with the following January.” The 2026 premium appeared in a fact sheet dated November 14, and SSA's date for the 2027 figure is late November. In October, the increase is known and the deduction is not.

Which Premium Comes Out of Which Benefit

Section 215(i)(2)(A)(ii) of the Act raises benefits “effective with the month of December of that year,” so the increase starts with the December 2026 benefit, paid in January 2027; an earlier post on the 2027 Social Security COLA starting with the December 2026 benefit traces that date. The premium runs on the same offset. Social Security Act section 1839(f) pairs the premiums for December and January with the benefits for November and December. The payment that arrives in January 2027 is the December 2026 benefit, already raised 3.6 percent, minus the January 2027 premium at the new 2027 rate.

Rounding comes after the premium. Social Security Act section 215(g) reads: “The amount of any monthly benefit computed under section 202 or 223 which (after any reduction under sections 203(a) and 224 and any deduction under section 203(b), and after any deduction under section 1840(a)(1)) is not a multiple of $1 shall be rounded to the next lower multiple of $1.” Section 1839(f) names section 1840(a)(1) as the premium deduction, so the cut to the dollar applies to what is left after the premium.

Run the fact sheet's average retired worker through it. In November 2026, $2,095 minus the $202.90 premium leaves $1,892.10, paid as $1,892. In January 2027 the benefit is $2,170. If the 2027 premium stayed at $202.90, the deposit would be $1,967.10, paid as $1,967: the full $75 gain. If the premium instead rose by $17.90 again, to $220.80, the deposit would be $1,949.20, paid as $1,949, a gain of $57. Premium increases come off the deposit dollar for dollar, give or take rounding.

The Hold-Harmless Test Compares Two Deposits

Section 1839(f) reads in full:

“For any calendar year after 1988, if an individual is entitled to monthly benefits under section 202 or 223 or to a monthly annuity under section 3(a), 4(a), or 4(f) of the Railroad Retirement Act of 1974 for November and December of the preceding year, if the monthly premium of the individual under this section for December and for January is deducted from those benefits under section 1840(a)(1) or section 1840(b)(1), and if the amount of the individual's premium is not adjusted for such January under subsection (i), the monthly premium otherwise determined under this section for an individual for that year shall not be increased, pursuant to this subsection, to the extent that such increase would reduce the amount of benefits payable to that individual for that December below the amount of benefits payable to that individual for that November (after the deduction of the premium under this section). For purposes of this subsection, retroactive adjustments or payments and deductions on account of work shall not be taken into account in determining the monthly benefits to which an individual is entitled under section 202 or 223 or under the Railroad Retirement Act of 1974.”

For 2027, the three conditions read:

1. Entitlement in November and December 2026 to benefits under section 202 or 223, or a railroad retirement annuity.
2. Deduction of the December 2026 and January 2027 premiums from those benefits.
3. No income-related adjustment under subsection (i) for January 2027.

Then the comparison: the premium increase may not push the December benefit after the January premium below the November benefit after the December premium, a test in dollars. The regulation draws the consequence in 42 CFR 408.20(e)(3)(i): “Beginning with calendar year 1989, a premium increase greater than the cost-of-living increase is still a prerequisite for a nonstandard premium.” If the COLA adds more dollars to the benefit than the premium adds to the deduction, the deposit rises anyway and there is nothing to hold harmless.

At 3.6 percent, a benefit gains 3.6 cents per dollar, so each $1 of premium increase is matched by the COLA on a benefit of about $27.78 ($1 divided by 0.036). If the 2027 premium rises $17.90, the dividing line is about $497.22 a month. Benefits below roughly $497 gain less than $17.90 from the COLA and can be held harmless; benefits above it absorb the full premium increase. Rounding both deposits down to the dollar makes the line approximate.

For the average retired worker, the premium would have to rise by more than $75, to above $277.90, before the rule came into play. The $69 and $59 gains each exceed three times $17.90. The last sentence of section 1839(f) keeps retroactive adjustments or payments and deductions on account of work out of determining the monthly benefits to which a person is entitled; how SSA applies that to the comparison was not examined.

What a Held-Harmless Premium Works Out To

When the rule applies, the premium charged is not the standard one. 42 CFR 408.20(e)(4) sets it:

“Amount of nonstandard premium. The nonstandard premium is the greater of the following: (i) The premium paid for December. (ii) The standard premium promulgated for January, reduced as necessary to compensate for— (A) The fact that the cost-of-living increase was less than the increase in the standard premium; or (B) The further reduction in benefit because of government pension offset or workers' compensation payments.”

Take an illustrative $400 benefit and apply 3.6 percent directly, ignoring the dime rounding on the primary insurance amount. It becomes $414.40, a $14.40 increase. In November 2026, $400 minus $202.90 leaves $197.10, paid as $197. Suppose the 2027 standard premium is $220.80. Without the rule, the January deposit would be $414.40 minus $220.80, or $193.60, paid as $193, four dollars below November.

Under paragraph (e)(4)(ii), the $220.80 is reduced by the $3.50 gap between the $17.90 premium increase and the $14.40 COLA, to $217.30. That is greater than the $202.90 December premium in branch (i), so on these unrounded figures $217.30 is the nonstandard premium. The January deposit is $197.10, paid as $197, the same as November. The entire $14.40 increase goes to the premium: the protection stops the deposit from falling but lets none of the COLA through. Someone already held harmless in 2026 paid less than $202.90 for December, so their own premium rise exceeds $17.90 and their line sits above $497.

The other numbered parts of paragraph (e), apart from (e)(2), which covers only 1987 and 1988:

• Actual receipt, (e)(1). “A nonstandard premium may be established in individual cases only if the individual is entitled to old age or disability benefits for the months of November and December, and actually receives the corresponding benefit checks in December and January.”
• After 1988, (e)(3). Besides the prerequisite in (e)(3)(i) and the income-related exclusion in (e)(3)(iii), item (e)(3)(ii) reads: “However, a nonstandard premium is not precluded solely because the cash benefit is further reduced as a result of government pension offset or workers' compensation payment.” Branch (B) of (e)(4) covers that reduction.
• A full year, (e)(5). “A nonstandard premium established under this paragraph (e) continues in effect for the rest of the calendar year even if later there are retroactive adjustments in benefit payments.” A parenthetical adds that a finding of no entitlement for November or December could change it.
• Late enrollment, (e)(6). For a late-enrollment or reenrollment increase, “The increase is computed on the basis of the standard premium and added to the nonstandard premium.” Part D has its own surcharge, covered in an earlier post on the Part D late enrollment penalty.

Income-Related Premiums Sit Outside the Rule and Read a 2025 Return

The third condition in section 1839(f) removes everyone who pays the income-related monthly adjustment amount, and paragraph (e)(3)(iii) of the regulation repeats it: “Beginning with CY 2007, a nonstandard premium may not be applied to individuals who are required to pay an income-related monthly adjustment amount described in § 408.28 of this part.” Their January deposit absorbs the full change in the standard premium plus any change in their adjustment, whatever the COLA.

Section 1839(i)(1) sets up the adjustment: “In the case of an individual whose modified adjusted gross income exceeds the threshold amount under paragraph (2), the monthly amount of the premium subsidy applicable to the premium under this section for a month after December 2006 shall be reduced (and the monthly premium shall be increased) by the monthly adjustment amount specified in paragraph (3).” The statute's threshold for an individual is “$80,000 (or, beginning with 2018, $85,000)”; the 2026 CMS table starts at $109,000, so the figure has been adjusted by a provision not reviewed here.

Which year's income counts is the trap. Section 1839(i)(4)(B)(i) reads: “In applying this subsection for an individual's premiums in a month in a year, subject to clause (ii) and subparagraph (C), the individual's modified adjusted gross income shall be such income determined for the individual's last taxable year beginning in the second calendar year preceding the year involved.” For 2027 premiums and a calendar-year filer, that is the 2025 tax year; under the same clause, the 2026 rows below were read from 2024 returns. Subparagraph (B) has three clauses:

• (i) the two-years-back rule above, also made subject to subparagraph (C), which was not examined here;
• (ii) if, as of October 15 before the calendar year, the Treasury lacks adequate electronic data for that year, the previous taxable year is used, with proper adjustments later; for 2027 that date has passed;
• (iii) for non-filers, regulations may apply the highest applicable percentage where income might exceed the threshold (subclause (I)), with proper adjustments if that proves inconsistent (subclause (II)).

The 2027 brackets are unpublished; the 2026 CMS table, with columns headed “Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount” and “Total Monthly Premium Amount,” shows the structure:

Individual return MAGI	Joint return MAGI	Adjustment	Total monthly premium
$109,000 or less	$218,000 or less	$0.00	$202.90
Over $109,000 to $137,000	Over $218,000 to $274,000	$81.20	$284.10
Over $137,000 to $171,000	Over $274,000 to $342,000	$202.90	$405.80
Over $171,000 to $205,000	Over $342,000 to $410,000	$324.60	$527.50
Over $205,000, under $500,000	Over $410,000, under $750,000	$446.30	$649.20
$500,000 or more	$750,000 or more	$487.00	$689.90

Each total is the $202.90 standard premium plus that row's adjustment, so a change in the standard premium passes through every row. Only the first row can be held harmless.

Numbers to Re-check

• 3.6 percent and $75: the 2027 increase and the average retired-worker gain, $2,095 to $2,170, first paid in January 2027.
• $202.90: the 2026 standard Part B premium, up $17.90 from $185.00; the 2027 figure is due from late November.
• $1,892, then $1,967 or $1,949: the average retired worker's deposit in November 2026, then January 2027 with an unchanged or a $220.80 premium.
• $27.78 per $1: the benefit on which a 3.6 percent COLA matches each dollar of premium increase; $497.22 at a $17.90 increase.
• $217.30 and $197: the illustrative nonstandard premium and the deposit it preserves on a $400 benefit.
• $109,000 and $218,000: the 2026 individual and joint thresholds, read from 2024 returns; 2027 premiums read 2025 returns.
• October 15: the data date in section 1839(i)(4)(B)(ii).

Where This Doesn't Apply

• New beneficiaries. Benefits beginning after November 2026 miss the first condition of section 1839(f) for 2027.
• Premiums not deducted from benefits. A December 2026 or January 2027 premium paid some other way misses the second condition, as does Part B coverage starting in 2027.
• Income-related premiums. An adjustment amount for January 2027 misses the third condition and the (e)(3)(iii) bar.
• Larger benefits. Where the dollar COLA at least matches the premium increase, the rule has nothing to do; at a $17.90 increase from $202.90 that covers benefits above about $497, including the three fact sheet rows used here.
• SSI-only recipients. Section 1839(f) refers to benefits under section 202 or 223 and railroad retirement annuities. SSI payments are not on that list, and Part B premium handling for people receiving only SSI was not examined here.
• Part D and Medicare Advantage premiums. Only the Part B premium under section 1839 was examined.
• The 2027 premium itself. The $220.80 above is the 2026 increase repeated, a scenario, not a forecast; the Medicare Trustees' projection was not used because the appendix carrying it could not be retrieved. Once the 2027 figure is published, the same arithmetic applies with it in place of $220.80.