Medicare Open Enrollment for 2027 coverage opened on October 15, 2026, and closes on December 7, 2026, the window the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced on September 28, 2026, alongside a projection that the weighted average Medicare Advantage premium will fall from $14.37 a month in 2026 to $12.00 in 2027. The premium is the small number; the large one is the plan's maximum out-of-pocket amount, or MOOP, and CMS has capped it for 2027 at $9,850 for in-network care and $14,800 for in-network and out-of-network care combined. A plan with drug coverage adds a separate Part D limit of $2,400, so the $9,850 figure now circulating as the 2027 Medicare Advantage limit is one of three ceilings, and for a PPO member who sees out-of-network doctors it is not the one that ends the year's spending. Both MOOP figures are maximums, not the amount on a given plan. Plans pick a number at or below them in one of three tiers, set by a CMS memo dated April 22, 2026, u...
On October 12, 2026, Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano said on CNBC that the program, now 90 years old, will be around for another 90 years. The depletion dates come from the Trustees Report released June 9, 2026, which gives two of them: the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78 percent of scheduled benefits payable, and the OASI and Disability Insurance (DI) funds counted together in the third quarter of 2034, with 83 percent payable. For a retired worker or a survivor, the earlier date is the one tied to the check, because those benefits are paid from the OASI fund and the law keeps the two funds separate.
Depletion is not the end of payments. Income keeps arriving, and the payable share slides to 62 percent by 2100 on the OASI fund, or 65 percent on the combined basis. A third number sits in the cost-of-living rule, which picks the COLA index by reading a trust fund ratio, and it reads the two funds combined, not the OASI fund that empties first.
Two Funds, Two Dates
The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report, Highlights section begins from the split: “Social Security consists of two separate trust funds, the OASI Trust Fund and the DI Trust Fund. Although the two funds are separate by law, their operations and reserves are often shown on a combined basis and referred to as OASDI.”
Which benefits leave which fund is set out in the SSA Office of the Chief Actuary Trust Fund FAQs: “Benefits to retired workers and their families, and to families of deceased workers, are paid from the OASI Trust Fund. Benefits to disabled workers and their families are paid from the DI Trust Fund.”
The Highlights give one date per fund, plus one for the pair:
- OASI: “The OASI Trust Fund is projected to become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than projected in last year’s report.”
- DI: “DI Trust Fund reserves are projected to remain positive throughout the 75-year projection period, as was projected in last year’s report.”
- Combined: “The combined OASDI fund is projected to become depleted in the third quarter of 2034, the same quarter as in last year’s report.”
The two dates are seven quarters apart. The combined fund lasts longer only because the DI fund, projected to stay positive through 2100, is counted with the OASI fund; on that basis DI reserves keep paying retirement and survivor benefits after the OASI fund is empty. With the funds separate by law, they stay in the DI fund.
The SSA press release of June 9, 2026 leads with the pooled figure, under the headline “Social Security Board of Trustees: Projection for Combined Trust Funds Remains Consistent with Prior Year.” That holds for the combined date. A sentence later comes the fund that pays retirees: “The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78 percent of benefits payable at that time.”
What Is Left After the Reserves
The FAQ page explains what reserves do: “These accumulated reserves provide automatic spending authority to pay benefits.” Once they are gone, the Highlights convert the income still arriving into a share of scheduled benefits:
- OASI: “Upon reserve depletion in 2032, projected income is sufficient to pay 78 percent of scheduled benefits. This percentage declines gradually to 62 percent by 2100.”
- Combined: “Upon reserve depletion in 2034, projected income is sufficient to pay 83 percent of scheduled benefits. This percentage declines gradually to 65 percent by 2100.”
The two bases differ by 5 percentage points at depletion and by 3 points in 2100. On a scheduled monthly benefit of $2,000, 78 percent is $1,560 and 83 percent is $1,660; at the 2100 shares, the same $2,000 becomes $1,240 or $1,300. These are fund-wide ratios of income to cost, so applying one evenly to a single check shows scale, not how a shortfall would be spread among beneficiaries.
What Changed Since Last Year's Report
The Highlights name three assumption areas and one law: “Since last year’s report, the Trustees have reassessed their expectations and have made changes to the intermediate assumptions in three primary areas. In addition, one law was enacted that is projected to have a substantial effect on Social Security’s financial status.” Fertility falls to 1.75 children per woman from 1.90. Immigration changes in three ways: lower assumed entries of temporary or unlawfully present immigrants in 2022-25, a lower ultimate level of those entrants for 2035 and later (1.20 million instead of 1.35 million), and higher emigration from the unlawfully present population in 2025-30. Near-term economics improve, with 2025-2035 growth 0.05 points higher for real GDP per hour worked and 0.28 points higher for average real earnings. The law is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), enacted July 4, 2025.
Only the economics push the other way: “The fertility, immigration, and OBBBA changes have a negative projected effect on Social Security’s financial status, while the near-term economic changes have a positive effect.” The breakdown by category sits in Section IV.B.6, not reviewed here, so the one-quarter OASI move is not pinned on any single change. The report names fertility as the largest contributor to the higher 75-year deficit, which rose from 3.82 percent of taxable payroll to 4.42 percent.
The law reaches the trust funds through the tax on benefits: “The OBBBA also adds a temporary additional standard deduction for taxpayers over age 65. As a result, less income tax will be paid on Social Security benefits, and the OASI and DI Trust Funds will receive lower levels of revenue in the future from income taxation of Social Security benefits.” How the tax on benefits is figured is the subject of an earlier post on combined income and the tax on Social Security benefits.
The IRS fact sheet on tax deductions for working Americans and seniors (FS-2025-03) gives the terms: “Effective for 2025 through 2028, individuals who are age 65 and older may claim an additional deduction of $6,000.” The amount is per eligible individual and phases out above modified adjusted gross income of $75,000, or $150,000 for joint filers; the return must carry the qualifying person's Social Security number, and married taxpayers must file jointly. Two details differ from the report's one-line summary, which calls it a standard deduction for taxpayers over age 65. The fact sheet says “Deduction is available for both itemizing and non-itemizing taxpayers,” and it counts anyone who reaches 65 by the last day of the taxable year.
The COLA Rule Reads the Combined Ratio
The law reads the trust funds in one more place. eCFR 20 CFR 404.272 has four lettered paragraphs: (a) names two indexes, the CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers and the average wage index (AWI); (b) makes the choice depend on the OASDI fund ratio; (c) defines that ratio; (d) sets the thresholds. Paragraph (c):
“For purposes of cost-of-living increases, the OASDI fund ratio is the ratio of the combined assets in the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund (see section 201 of the Social Security Act) on January 1 of a given year, to the estimated expenditures from the Funds in the same year.”
Paragraph (d), in two sentences covering four cases:
“We use the CPI if the OASDI fund ratio is 15.0 percent or more for any year from 1984 through 1988, and if the ratio is 20.0 percent or more for any year after 1988. We use either the CPI or the AWI, depending on which has the lower percentage increase in the applicable measuring period (see § 404.274), if the OASDI fund ratio is less than 15.0 percent for any year from 1984 through 1988, and if the ratio is less than 20.0 percent for any year after 1988.”
For any current year, the line is a combined fund ratio of 20.0 percent. At or above it, the COLA follows the CPI; below it, whichever of the CPI and the AWI rose less.
Section IV.A of the 2026 Trustees Report projects a close relative: “A standard measure for assessing solvency is the ‘trust fund ratio,’ which is the reserves in a fund at the beginning of a year (not including advance tax transfers) expressed as a percentage of the cost during the year.” The regulation's version adds FICA and SECA taxes transferred on January 1 and subtracts amounts owed to the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund from interfund loans, so the report's column headed trust fund ratio at start of year is the nearest published projection, not the regulation's figure:
| Start of year | OASI fund (Table IV.A1) | OASI and DI combined (Table IV.A3) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 153 | 151 |
| 2027 | 129 | 131 |
| 2028 | 105 | 111 |
| 2029 | 82 | 92 |
| 2030 | 60 | 74 |
| 2031 | 39 | 57 |
| 2032 | 17 | 40 |
| 2033 | depleted in fourth quarter of 2032 | 23 |
| 2034 | depleted | 7 |
Against the 20.0 line, the combined ratio is 23 at the start of 2033 and 7 at the start of 2034, so on the report's basis 2034 is the first year below it. The OASI fund alone is at 17 at the start of 2032, but paragraph (c) measures combined assets, so that figure by itself does not move the index. Table IV.A3 also pools the funds, as the 2034 date does; with the funds kept separate and the OASI fund empty from late 2032, the January 1, 2033 ratio the regulation counts would differ from the 23 shown.
The same column carries the Trustees' own line, from a short-range test that “applies to the OASI and DI Trust Funds individually and combined.” A fund starting at 100 percent or more must stay at or above 100 throughout the 10-year period. The combined ratio falls from 111 at the start of 2028 to 92 at the start of 2029, and the OASI ratio from 105 to 82.
The 17.0 Percent Example Carries a Date
Paragraph (d) ends with an illustration: “For example, if the OASDI fund ratio for a year is 17.0 percent, the cost-of-living increase effective December of that year will be based on the CPI.” The section's citation line is 51 FR 12603, Apr. 14, 1986. Under the 15.0 percent threshold for 1984 through 1988, 17.0 clears the line and the example holds. For any year after 1988 the line is 20.0, 17.0 falls below it, and the second sentence of paragraph (d) governs: the lower of the CPI and AWI increases.
The OASI fund's ratio at the start of 2032 is also 17, and it reads three ways. Through the example, it gives a CPI-based COLA. Through the post-1988 threshold, it gives the lower of the two indexes. Through paragraph (c), it gives neither, because the rule measures the combined funds, which stand at 40 that year.
Even below the line, the switch changes the COLA only in a year when the AWI rises less than the CPI; when wages outpace prices, the lower of the two is still the CPI. The increase takes effect with the December benefit, the timing traced in an earlier post on the 2027 Social Security COLA and the December 2026 benefit.
The Size of the Gap Depends on the Start Year
The Highlights state the 75-year shortfall this way: “The OASDI actuarial deficit for the 75-year projection period (2026-2100) is 4.42 percent of taxable payroll, or about 1.5 percent of GDP.” That reads easily as the tax increase needed; the report's own list gives a different number. After “To illustrate the magnitude of the solvency gap, if the following changes were made in 2026, then the combined OASDI program would be solvent for the full 75-year period ending in 2100:” it gives four options:
- “Increase the payroll tax rate from 12.40 percent to 16.65 percent starting in January 2026, or”
- “Reduce scheduled benefits by 25.2 percent for all current and future beneficiaries starting in January 2026, or”
- “Reduce scheduled benefits by 30.3 percent for only those who become eligible for benefits in 2026 and later, but not for current beneficiaries, or”
- “Other equivalent combinations of increased revenue and/or reduced benefits.”
From 12.40 to 16.65 is 4.25 percentage points, 0.17 below the 4.42 deficit; only the 4.25 is a change in the tax rate. The benefit options split by who shares the cut: 25.2 percent for everyone, 30.3 percent if current beneficiaries are left out.
Waiting raises each figure: “If substantial actions are deferred until the OASDI program reaches reserve depletion, significantly larger changes would be concentrated on fewer years and fewer generations.” The 2034 list has three options: a 17.30 percent rate from 2034, 4.90 points above today's; a 28.5 percent cut for all current and future beneficiaries from 2034; or other equivalent combinations. Both lists are framed around the pooled OASDI program, not the OASI fund on its own.
Numbers to Re-check
- Fourth quarter of 2032, 78 percent, 62 percent by 2100: the OASI fund, which pays retired workers, their families and survivors.
- Third quarter of 2034, 83 percent, 65 percent by 2100: OASI and DI counted together, seven quarters later.
- 4.42 and 3.82 percent: the 75-year actuarial deficit in the 2026 and 2025 reports.
- 16.65 and 17.30 percent: payroll tax rates, against 12.40 now, that close the gap from 2026 or from 2034.
- 25.2, 30.3 and 28.5 percent: benefit cuts for everyone from 2026, for new eligibles only from 2026, and for everyone from 2034.
- 20.0 percent: the combined OASDI fund ratio below which the COLA uses the lower of the CPI and AWI increases; 15.0 percent applied for 1984 through 1988.
- 23, 7 and 17: the report's combined ratio at the start of 2033 and 2034, and the OASI ratio at the start of 2032.
- $6,000, $75,000 and $150,000: the senior deduction for 2025 through 2028 and the income levels above which it phases out.
Where This Doesn't Apply
- Disability benefits. They are paid from the DI fund, which the report projects to stay positive through 2100. The 2032 date is the OASI fund's.
- A change in law. Every date and share above assumes current law. Legislation moving money or tax rates between the funds, or any option on the Trustees' lists, would replace them.
- Other assumption sets. These are the intermediate projections. The FAQ page notes that the report makes projections “under three alternative sets of economic, demographic, and programmatic assumptions”; the low-cost and high-cost results were not used here.
- The regulation's own ratio. SSA computes the 20.0 percent test from January 1 balances under paragraph (c), rounded to the nearest 0.1 percent, not from the report's table. The measuring periods in § 404.274 were not examined.
- Filers outside the senior deduction. Taxpayers not yet 65 by the last day of the taxable year and married taxpayers filing separately get none of the $6,000; above the income thresholds, it phases out.
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